- Markets trade cautiously into the US NFP report
- UK October final manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 50.3 prelim
- Japan opposition party chief: BoJ should not raise interest rates for at least half a year
- Switzerland October manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 49.8 expected
- Israel at 'high level of readiness' for Iranian attack - report
- Swiss October retail sales 2.2% vs. 2.5% y/y expected
- Switzerland October CPI +0.6% vs +0.8% y/y expected
- UK October Nationwide house prices +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected
- What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
- BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report: Rise in minimum wage could push up services prices
- What are the main events for today?
Markets:
- GBP leads, CHF lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.39%
- US 10-year yields flat at 4.289%
- Gold up 0.30% to $2,752
- WTI crude up 2.12% to $70.73
- Bitcoin down 0.19% to $70,088
It's been a rather slow session in terms of data releases. The main highlight was the Switzerland CPI report which missed expectations by a big margin and will likely lead the SNB to cut by 50 bps in December.
In FX, we had some mixed moves. The US Dollar is up a bit against the commodity currencies but down against the GBP. In fact, the GBP has been recovering some ground from yesterday's selloff, although we haven't got any catalyst for today's bounce.
In the equities space, the risk sentiment is tentatively positive with US and European markets up on the day. Overall, there's been a rangebound price action in the last couple of weeks as we await the US election on Tuesday.
The bond markets are basically flat on the day. The biggest movers have been the UK's bonds after the budget announcement but it looks like they stabilised.
The focus will now switch to the US data in the American session as we get the NFP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. As a reminder, this is going to be a tricky report given the distortions from hurricanes and strikes in October. Thankfully, the market and the Fed are unlikely to care that much given the distortions and the focus on the US election on Tuesday.
Therefore, I expect a weak report to be "forgiven", while a strong one would just confirm that the labour market is still doing good and add to the expectations that the Fed might be forced to pause its easing cycle earlier than expected in 2025.
