Headlines:
- FX still mostly stuck in a rut so far today
- Economists see ECB performing first rate cut in June - poll
- BOJ's Takata says not thinking of raising rates one after another
- BOJ's Takata: I would call for a gear shift in policy, but not one that is going backwards
- Bavaria February CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y prior
- France February preliminary CPI +2.9% vs +2.7% y/y expected
- Spain February preliminary CPI +2.8% vs +2.7% y/y expected
- Switzerland Q4 GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% q/q expected
- France Q4 final GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% q/q prelim
- Germany January retail sales -0.4% vs +0.5% m/m expected
- Germany February unemployment change 11k vs 7k expected
- UK January mortgage approvals 55.23k vs 52.00k expected
- Switzerland February KOF leading indicator index 101.6 vs 102.0 expected
Markets:
- JPY leads, NZD lags on the day
- European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
- US 10-year yields up 2.9 bps to 4.303%
- Gold down 0.3% to $2,029.25
- WTI crude down 0.1% to $77.76
- Bitcoin up 3.4% to $62,627
It was yet another dull session for FX but hopefully things will pick up as we get into US trading later.
Major currencies were largely subdued as the dollar found itself little changed for the most part. It was only the Japanese yen that was a decent mover and all of that came during Asia trading. BOJ policymaker Takata hinted at stronger wage hikes and that helped to see USD/JPY fall to a low of 149.60 before holding closer to around 150.00 currently on the day.
In terms of data in Europe, we got inflation numbers from Germany, France, and Spain which mainly reaffirmed the ECB outlook for a potential June rate cut. As such, the euro was rather disinterested and stuck in a narrow range still.
Besides that, regional equities were mixed while US futures are slightly lower. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are slightly higher but continues to rest in range on the week. 10-year yields are still limited by the 100-day moving average at 4.31%, so that will be one to watch out for later in the day.
Coming up, we will have the US PCE price index to scrutinise before focusing on month-end flows ahead of the London fix. Maybe that will help to inject some life into things.