Headlines:
- Dollar gives back some of its post-Fed gains
- Weekly update on interest rate expectations
- USD/JPY ramps up to hit 156.00 on Ueda presser
- BOJ governor Ueda: Hard to say if incoming data will be sufficient to support January hike
- BOJ governor Ueda: The big picture on wage trends will become clearer in March, April
- BOJ governor Ueda: January decision will be 'holistic' based on available data
- BOJ governor Ueda: Decision to keep rates unchanged was based on several factors
- BOJ governor Ueda: Japan economy is recovering moderately, although some weakness seen
- BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 4.75%, as expected
- ECB's Šimkus: Inflation risks are balanced for next year
- ECB's Patsalides: I prefer small, gradual rate cuts
- Germany January GfK consumer sentiment -21.3 vs -22.5 expected
- France December business confidence 94 vs 96 prior
Markets:
- CHF leads, JPY lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.7%
- US 10-year yields up 4.4 bps to 4.542%
- Gold up 1.0% to $2,612.73
- WTI crude down 0.2% to $70.42
- Bitcoin up 1.3% to $102,276
It was a modestly eventful session as market players dealt with two more major central bank decisions today after the Fed yesterday.
The post-Fed moves were faded somewhat with the dollar retracing gains alongside a minor bounce in US futures on the day. But after the BOJ decision earlier to keep interest rates unchanged, governor Kazuo Ueda sent a clear message that they are willing to kick the can down the road to March before hiking next.
And that sent USD/JPY running higher early on in the session from 155.50 all the way up to a high of 157.15 before settling just under 157.00 currently. Ueda's point is that they don't have enough information on wage trends and there is much uncertainty on Trump's tariffs to come. Both of which will almost surely not be that much changed by January.
Outside of that though, the dollar struggled to maintain gains from yesterday as we see a retracement across the board.
EUR/USD moved up from 1.0360 to 1.0400 while USD/CAD dipped from 1.4430 to 1.4375 during the session. Even the antipodes managed a bounce with AUD/USD finding buyers at key support at 0.6200 to 0.6250 currently.
GBP/USD managed a modest bounce to 1.2660 levels before being pulled back to around 1.2630. And then we had the BOE policy decision, which saw three policymakers dissent in favour of a 25 bps rate cut - as opposed to just Dhingra. That pinned cable down to 1.2605 currently, though still up 0.3% on the day.
In other markets, European indices are down roughly by 1% across the board in catching up to Wall Street losses yesterday. That said, the selling isn't as bad as US futures are catching a minor bounce with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.7% today. It's still early in the day though as Wall Street is a different beast as seen several times already this week.
As for bonds, short-end yields are down slightly but the long-end continues to sell off with 10-year yields in the US now rising to 4.54%. It's certainly something to keep an eye out for as we look towards the closing stages this week and into the new year.
