Headlines:
- Money markets now price in a 50 bps rate move from the ECB by the end of the year
- Oil continues to impress as the run higher gathers more legs
- Goldman Sachs expects ECB to start hiking rates in September
- ECB survey sees inflation falling back below target next year
- Eurozone December retail sales -3.0% vs -0.5% m/m expected
- UK January construction PMI 56.3 vs 54.3 prior
- Germany December factory orders +2.8% vs +0.5% m/m expected
Markets:
- EUR leads, AUD lags on the day
- European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.6%
- US 10-year yields down 0.8 bps to 1.818%
- Gold up 0.4% to $1,812.01
- WTI up 1.4% to $91.56
- Bitcoin up 2.9% to $38,051
It was a relatively quiet session but there were some decent market moves all around, as we also count down to the US non-farm payrolls release later.
The euro continued to march forward with gains as money markets price in a quicker pace of ECB rate hikes. A 10 bps move for June is now priced in with a 50 bps move overall by year-end.
That is keeping the euro buoyed with EUR/USD at 1.1460-70 levels during the session. Meanwhile, the dollar is more mixed as commodity currencies struggled despite some early optimism from the equities space.
US futures pulled higher after Amazon's earnings beat but has seen gains wither with S&P 500 futures now up 0.6%, down from around 1.2% earlier. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures are up 1.4% but down from as high as gains of 2.2% earlier.
As such, commodity currencies are also looking sluggish with USD/CAD up 0.3% to 1.2710 and AUD/USD down 0.5% to 0.7105. The loonie isn't getting much help from surging oil prices, even with WTI crude above $91 at the moment.
The US non-farm payrolls release will be the next key risk event to watch before the weekend so let's see what that has to offer in terms of adding to the more hawkish central bank mix from yesterday.
