Goldman vice chairman and former Dallas Fed president Kaplan speaking on CNBC
- That won't take action at June and July meetings
- But do not be surprised to hear some hawkish splash patient rhetoric
- expect the Fed will work hard to maintain its flexibility
- If at the Fed, I am in a risk management position
- I think the next move not known likely be down not up but the timing is
- I would like to see inflation moderately improve between now and September.
- Fiscal spending is more moderate but still running spending programs.
- Fed does not want to see real acceleration in inflation
- We have a jump in labor's market because of immigration
- Fed was very late to raise rates - up to 20 months.
- I think that the Fed may be a meeting or so late to cut
- The Fed may not get it perfectly right, but they will get a rate
- I expect the dark play meeting to be one cut, maybe a little more with a hawkish commitment
- I think the Fed would be well served to bear on the side of hawkishness
- The market and the Fed are not too far off.
- See Fed funds rate at the end of the year 4 3/4 - 5%
- Think the 10-year rate would be higher then 3.5% by the end of year. Does not put a level on the 10 year.
- Growth in the US will have to come from productivity unless have more immigration
- It always matter who is in the seats at the Fed
- I think have Powell until the end of 2025
The Fed is in the quiet period. So the next best thing is the former Fed officials.
