USD/JPY intervention aside, the dollar is scaling to fresh highs against the rest of the major currencies bloc as we look towards the end of the week with the euro and pound looking among the worst performers - if you go by the charts.
With the euro slumping to fresh 20-year lows, the quid is down to its lowest since 1985 against the dollar as the post-Fed reaction continues to play out. The BOE raised the bank rate by 50 bps yesterday but 75 bps was priced in and less hawkish undertones also saw markets pull back on future pricing across the curve moving forward.
The policy divergence alone continues to remain a major force driving the downside pressure in cable at the moment. I've been repeating this message ever since cable was treading water near 1.2000 (strikethrough change for current levels):
"Considering that both central banks (Fed and BOE) already gave a formal message that we are in the second-half of the tightening cycle, the trade for cable is very much a case of 'who folds first'? The Fed or the BOE? In this instance, it looks very much like the latter.
As such, the path of least resistance is for the pair to move lower - all else being equal. Now, with the dollar picking up steam across the board, the next test is 1.1800 and the year's lows near 1.1759 psychological support near 1.1000 potentially."
The lows in 1985 touched around 1.0520-45 but before we get there, I reckon cable sellers will have to do a bit more to drive price below 1.1000. After that, parity will come into the conversation surely.
