I don't like speculating about politics and war but that's about a dozen countries now that have advised citizens to leave Lebanon. Skirmishes along the Israel-Lebanon are continuing and I strongly suspect that all the western countries offering up this advice believe Israel and Lebanon aren't headed for a protracted period of peace.
Does it matter for markets?
In a vacuum, no, but dominoes are falling and the one that really matters is Iran.
If there is a conflict between Israel and Lebanon, markets will be watching to see how far into the country it extends. This message -- just out from Israel finance minister Smotrich is ominous:
We currently have only one mandate -- to completely destroy Hamas and the terrorist organization in Gaza and remove the threat to Israel and its citizens from Gaza, as well as from other borders.
Oil and bonds will be the initial spot to watch. Remember it was a bid in bonds last Monday that led to a rally in equities after the initial terrorist attacks.
