- Upcoming debate could put some short-term focus on upcoming US elections
- Likes med-term USD upside exposure
- USD upside exposure has added benefit of hedging against non-US political risks (France)
- Thinks the most negative scenario for both the USD and the S&P500 is a democrat sweep, while the most positive scenario for both is a republican sweep
Below is a breakdown of their estimates for what the various election outcomes will mean for the S&P, major pairs and for 10Y treasury yields.
Goldman on US election outcomes
