Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Australia’s economic growth in 2025 (info comes via Bloomberg (gated)):
- forecasts Australian domestic product (GDP) rising 1.8% in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 2%
GS cite likely “negative spillovers” from the incoming Trump’s expected increase in tariffs on China, specifically the impact on Australia's exports to China. Trump has promised 60% tariffs on exports from China
GS' Reserve Bank of Australia outlook:
- forecasts a 25bp interest rate cut from the Bank in February 2025
- terminal rate of 3.25% by November 2025
- "higher US tariffs on China as having a dovish read-through for Australian rates”
- GS express wariness over further fiscal stimulus in Australia ahead of the 2025 federal election, warn of upside risks to rates
