Goldman Sachs is forecasting a +155K headline nonfarm payroll employment number. This is slightly under the +160K consensus.
More from their preview:
- Unemployment rate ticking down a touch to 4.2%
- Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m
- Average hourly earnings +3.7% y/y
- Participation rate 62.7%
GS cite (in summary):
- "Big Data" indicators suggest job creation is below recent payroll trends
- August payrolls often have a negative bias in initial reports over the past decade
- Modest job rebound expected from July’s severe weather impact and contributions from recent immigration surges
- Unemployment rate estimated to decrease partly due to the reversal of temporary layoffs in July (linked to auto plant retooling and extreme heat)
- Wage pressures are easing, but positive calendar effects are influencing the rise in average earnings.
Data is due at 0830 US Eastern time on Thursday, September 5, 2024.
