Goldman Sachs says almost no chance of US recession in next year. 38% chance in year after

Goldman Sachs cite their broad modelling of the economy:

• almost no chance of a recession in the next 12 months
• 38% probability of a recession the following year

If you crunch the numbers on timing on this you'll see that for most traders this recession talk is just entertainment.

Let's say GS are correct on point 1. No recession in the next year. So, by end-March 2023, no recession. We'd have that data by, say the end of May or so (unless there are revision further down the time pipe.

Let's also say that there is a recession the following year. Let's say two consecutive quarters of negative growth occur in the quarters ending June 2023 and September 2023. We'd have that data by what, end of November 2023?

I'm sure there will be some folks out there for who this is significant. I'm not one of them.

eur EUR The euro (EUR) is the official currency of the European Union (EU) and 19 of 27 member states at the time of writing. It is the second most-traded currency worldwide in forex markets after the US dollar.The euro was originally introduced back on January 1, 1999, having replaced the European Currency Unit. Banknotes and physical euro coins subsequently entered circulation only in 2002.Upon its adoption, the euro replaced domestic currencies in participating EU member states. The rise in its value The euro (EUR) is the official currency of the European Union (EU) and 19 of 27 member states at the time of writing. It is the second most-traded currency worldwide in forex markets after the US dollar.The euro was originally introduced back on January 1, 1999, having replaced the European Currency Unit. Banknotes and physical euro coins subsequently entered circulation only in 2002.Upon its adoption, the euro replaced domestic currencies in participating EU member states. The rise in its value Read this Term