Key Points:
- Forecasts $76/bbl average for 2025 on moderate surplus
- Maintains $70-85/bbl range view
- Risks skewed to downside due to high spare capacity, potential trade tariffs
- Brent spreads may be underpricing near-term physical tightness
Geopolitical factors:
- Limited risk premium despite Israel-Iran tensions
- High OPEC+ spare capacity providing buffer
- Iran oil production remains undisrupted
- Mid East conflict keeps supply risks in play
Bottom line: While Goldman sees downside risks dominating, they note 2025 supply glut isn't guaranteed and year-end could see some upward price pressure.
