Goldman Sachs had a previous estimate at 25%, cut now to just 20%.

From GS economists:

  • "The recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession,"
  • We do expect some deceleration in the next couple of quarters, mostly because of sequentially slower real disposable personal income growth—especially when adjusted for the resumption of student debt payments in October—and a drag from reduced bank lending,"
  • "But the easing in financial conditions, the rebound in the housing market, and the ongoing boom in factory building all suggest that the US economy will continue to grow, albeit at a below-trend pace."
Via a Goldman Sachs analyst research note ICYMI (on Friday) covering huge technology shares like Fac

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Market consensus for a recession in 12 months is just above 50%.