Goldman Sachs sees Brent price upside risks in short term, medium-term skewed to downside

Goldman Sachs:

• Sees upside risks to Brent prices in short term, with Brent rising to mid-$80s in 2025H1 if Iran supply drops 1mb/d on tighter sanctions enforcement
• Sees medium-term price risks skewed to the downside given high spare capacity
• Estimates that Brent drops to the low $60s in 2026 in a 10% across-the-board tariff scenario or if OPEC supply rises through 2025