The ECB in December 2021 forecasted for:

  • GDP to grow by 4.2% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023. That was down from 4.6% and 2.1% in their September 2021 forecast
  • HICP to rise by 3.2% in 2022 and 1.8% in 2023. That was up from 1.7% and 1.5% in their September 2021 forecast.

Below are those forecasts from December.

ECB forecast
ECB forecast for growth and inflation from December 2021

In the current quarter they now see:

  • 2022 growth seen at 3.7% versus 4.2% in December
  • 2023 growth seen at 2.8% versus 2.9% in December
  • 2024 growth seen at 1.6% versus 1.6% December
ECB growth
ECB sees lower growth in 2022

For inflation ,:

  • 2022 HICP seen at 5.1% versus 3.2% December. Big jump in inflation!
  • 2023 HICP seen at 2.1% versus 1.8% December. See inflation moderating.
  • 2024 HICP seen at 1.9% versus 1.8%
ECB inflation
ECB sees much higher inflation in 2022

More specific comments on inflation

  • Inflation excluding food and energy to average 2.6% in 2022
  • longer-term inflation expectations have will anchored at target
  • counsel sees it as increasingly likely that inflation will stabilize at target
  • in all the alternatives scenarios about war economic activity could be dampened significantly
  • inflation could be is considerably higher in the near-term
  • in all scenarios inflation still expected to decrease progressively

Below are the details for GDP and inflation forecasts (CLICK HERE for the FULL REPORT):

GDP HICP
Details of GDP and HICP data from the ECB