The OIS market is implying roughly 85% odds of the RBA leaving the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, so that outlines the risks heading into today's decision.
There are plenty of mixed calls but the ones I would argue that have the most weightage are usually Australia's own 'big four'. Looking at that, ANZ and NAB are predicting a 25 bps rate hike while CBA and Westpac are predicting no change. That tells you that the estimates are quite fairly balanced on either side.
I shared some thoughts yesterday here but you can also check out the host of previews that Eamonn has put up earlier below:
- RBA rate hike pause expected today. Here's what could trigger a hike later in the year
- Reserve Bank of Australia meet Tuesday, 4 April 2023, UBS are looking for a pause
- Goldman Sachs is expecting a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hike
- RBA April 4 meeting poll - analysts evenly split on +25bp hike vs. pause
- NAB slashed their peak RBA cash rate forecast - here's what others expect
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia expect an RBA pause at the April 4th meeting
- RBA April 4 meeting preview - Westpac says the RBA has a preference to pause, and will
- We expect a dovish hike from the RBA - BofA
