It is the first Tuesday of the month and that means RBA decision day. The central bank finally pivoted in May and delivered more of a Goldilocks decision, hiking rates by 25 bps (instead of a debate between 15 bps and 40 bps at the time).

There isn't as much room to deliver such an in-between move this time around, so it is either going to be a 25 bps move (what most are expecting) or a 40 bps move (which will not be that much of a surprise).

Here is what RBA cash rate futures are pricing in going into the decision today:

RBA

A consensus move to hike the cash rate by 25 bps isn't likely to stir up much market reaction but given the lack of drive in the aussie as of late, there might be some light selling in the aftermath. The more dour risk tone to start the new week also isn't really helping. US futures are pointing lower again after the gains yesterday were almost completely wiped out.

Otherwise, a "surprise" 40 bps rate hike may lend itself to some light strength in the aussie but just be wary that gains may be fleeting. A couple of key technical levels to watch will be the 100-day moving average at 0.7228, and the key hourly moving averages at 0.7178-09. I'll be inclined to fade any jump as long as risk sentiment remains iffy.

You can check out some of the earlier previews posted: