A snippet from analysts at RaboBank, who sat that for the US, "a recession seems difficult to avoid."
Rabo highlight two likely triggers:
- Either the exogenous supply shocks are going to bring down business activity
- or the Fed’s response to high and persistent inflation is going to do the job
Rabo address timing, saying they don't see a recession in 2022. Timing will hinge on whether it is caused by one of those exogenous or endogenous factors referred to above:
- Given the strong labor market and robust consumption and investment at the moment, we think that the endogenous will be decisive. This means it is more likely going to be the recession of 2023 rather than the recession of 2022
The ECB are facing similar factors.
