Commonwealth Bank of Australia's CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) index for December 2023
-3.9% m/m
- prior +1.6%
- eight of the 12 HSI spending categories declined in December, led by a significant -16% m/m fall in Household goods
For the y/y, +3.1%
- prior +4.0%
- CBA add that with the annual rate of inflation in the December quarter expected to be just above 4%, spending is negative in real terms and will remain weak on a real per
CBA emphasise the "volatility in spending stemming from the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales — which have brought forward shopping related to the holiday period".
- the pace of economic growth in Australia clearly moderating
- the November RBA rate hike yet to fully impact on the consumer, a further slowdown in the pace of household spending is expected through the first half of 2024
- together with moderating inflation supports our view that the monetary policy tightening cycle has come to an end that the RBA can join the expected global shift to lower interest rates in September this year
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AUD/USD update, it rose with the broadly weak USD:
