Hurricane forecaster Tomer Burg notes that the path of Hurricane Milton over the past few hours has been tracking consistently south of most models and forecasts.
The storm was last a Category 5 hurricane but is expected to weaken somewhat over the next 14-18 hours to a Cat-4 or Cat-3 before landfall.
However this track runs opposite to what the NHC said in its last update 5 hours ago. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which appear to be too far south.
We will be keeping an ear out for the latest forecast at 11 am ET (or sooner).
