Justin had the news on Tuesday here:

  • China is said to be planning a record budget deficit of 4% of GDP for next year.
  • That will be a step up from the target of 3% of GDP for this year.

To 4% from 3% is substantial. Justin adds the caveat:

  • Just be wary that all of these plans could still possibly change
  • official target is typically announced in March during the National People's Congress (NPC) session

Yep.

Adam posted his take on China overnight, with a chart of Chinese bond yield tumbling off a cliff. I did a double take on the chart Adam posted, I thought it was a Heikin Ashi with all the flat-butts, but no ... just super-ugly.

Here's a longer view ... even uglier. Just for giggles I stuck a US yield chart underneath it ... and you want to know why the yuan is under pressure?

china yield cliff 18 December 2024 us 10 year compare