The Wall Street Journal is gated, but here is the link if you can access it:

Citi Sees Possibility of $120 Oil if Supplies Are Disrupted

  • The bull-case scenario is based on the risk of an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran

In (very brief) summary:

  • base case is for Brent to average $74 a barrel in Q4 & $65 in Q1 2025
  • “owing to weak underlying oil market fundamentals.”
  • bull-case estimate $120 (probability of 20%) “based on supply fears and disruptions similar in magnitude and duration to that which occurred during 2022”
  • bear-case scenario includes OPEC+ starting to raise production in December and a decline in supply risks, Brent $60Q4, & $55 in Q1 2025
oil pumpjack horror