ICYMI - Citi sees a 50/50 chance of a recession

Citigroup puts the probability of a recession at 50%.

In a client note, citing higher Federal Reserve Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve System, more commonly known as the Fed, represents the central banking system of the United States. Like other central banks globally, the Fed is responsible for monetary policy, in this case in the US.The Fed is one of the most watched and followed entities for forex traders, given its material impact on the US dollar. Founded initially in 1913, the Fed was created to perform a wide range of functions. This includes stabilizing and maintaining flexible monetary policy in the The Federal Reserve System, more commonly known as the Fed, represents the central banking system of the United States. Like other central banks globally, the Fed is responsible for monetary policy, in this case in the US.The Fed is one of the most watched and followed entities for forex traders, given its material impact on the US dollar. Founded initially in 1913, the Fed was created to perform a wide range of functions. This includes stabilizing and maintaining flexible monetary policy in the Read this Term interest rates & rocketing inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term leading to stress on consumer spending and economic output.

• The global economy continues to be afflicted by severe supply shocks, which are pushing up inflation and driving down growth
• more recently, two further factors have burst onto the scene: Central banks are hiking policy rates with increasing vigour in their fight against inflation, and the global consumer’s demand for goods looks to be softening
• we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50%. Central banks may yet engineer the soft—or 'softish'—landings embedded in their forecasts (and in ours), but this will require supply shocks to ebb and demand to remain resilient

More here.

Hard landing, incoming.