A note from Goldman Sachs has cancelled their earlier forecast of a EZ recession this year. GS had been looking for a tiny, -0.1%, contraction in GDP in the region. But ...
- "We maintain our view that Euro area growth will be weak over the winter months given the energy crisis but no longer look for a technical recession"
GS' inflation outlook
- 3.25% at year end 2023 (vs. their 4.50% forecast earlier)
- Core inflation to 3.3%
- GS citing lower prices for goods, buy continued higher for services due to the rising cost of labour
- ECB outlook:
+50 basis points hikes in February and March - +25 bps in May
- terminal rate 3.25%
- GS citing 'sticky' inflation
