Both the Swiss government and the private KOF Swiss Economic Institute expect slower growth for the economy.
Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) Economic Growth Forecasts:
- 2023: Swiss economy projected to grow 0.9% (down from a prior forecast of 1.2%).
- 2024: Growth forecast revised to 1.5% (previously 1.6%).
- 2026: First forecast predicts 1.7% growth.
- All forecasts are below Switzerland's long-term average growth of 1.8%.
Factors Impacting Growth:
- Slower global demand, particularly from Germany and China, is weighing on exports.
- Domestic demand expected to drive growth in 2024.
Risks Ahead:
- US trade policy, including tariffs under the incoming Trump administration, adds uncertainty.
- Broader international economic and trade policy remains unpredictable.
KOF Swiss Economic Institute Forecast:
- Expects growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.
- Predicts weak foreign demand until mid-2025, with gradual improvement thereafter.
