The odds of a Trump Presidency skyrocketed yesterday after a poor performance in the debate from Joe Biden.
CNBC's Jim Cramer showed up with the right attitude today, looking for concrete winners and losers if Trump takes power in November, particularly if there is a Republican sweep of the House and Senate. Cramer said he wasn't ready to make any trades himself but wanted to offer up some ideas for those who think that's what will happen.
I thought they were useful:
- Short Nike and Starbucks on the potential for a real trade war with China, particularly if Navarro is named Secretary of State
- The merger of Kroger and Albertsons (ACI up modestly premarket) won't be blocked. Shares of Albertsons are trading at $19.74 now compared to the $34.10/share takeover price.
- AMZN. The efforts to break up Amazon will be dropped
- AAPL. Apple will no longer be in the FTC crosshairs. (This one surprises me because Apple is levered to China as well)
- More media mergers. I'm not exactly sure what the trade would be on that but I'd imagine but acquirers and targets could do well, maybe Sinclair?
- JNJ. He made the case around rules that hurt Johnson & Johnson related to the Purdue opiate lawsuit.
- New Fortress Energy and LNG. He doesn't seem to be the only one on NFE, which is up nearly 6% premarket. The US put a temporary pause on LNG approvals and Trump unequivocally said he would reverse that. He also highlighted that 'unfettered' oil production would have some other opportunities (oilfield services?). He also later highlighted Cheniere Energy as a winner.
Finally, he expressed some strong concern that the soft landing could be hurt if Jerome Powell is replaced.
"I'm not a political guy but I think Jay Powell is amazing," Cramer said. "He's done a remarkable job and it would be horrible if he were removed."
Cramer said he's also worried that a group of people will say "this is too crazy, I need to take some money off the table."
