The study confirms what most people would expect via the impact on the economic cycle, that being manufacturing activity leading the services sector. The lead-lag analysis conducted by the ECB shows that manufacturing tends to lead for about three quarters before services take over to wag the tail, although by then the impact is more muted.
The conclusion from the study model is that monetary policy shocks have a greater impact on manufacturing than on services. The result suggests that the impact is almost twice as strong and around two quarters quicker for manufacturing than the impact on services overall.
The full study can be found here.
As for the takeaway, we have already seen Europe's manufacturing sector enter a recession in the last two quarters. And that could mean that a further slowdown in the services sector could be due some time this year amid the lagged impact.
