This snippet as a reminder from ING on looking out for yuan strength in the weeks ahead:

  • The season of converting the dollar to CNY has come. Export receipt conversion should start around three weeks before the first day of the Chinese New Year (which this year starts on 22 January) and end around one week before that as manufacturers need to pay bonuses before workers leave factories for the holidays.
  • That means demand for yuan in the onshore market should increase.

Chart of offshore yuan, it already appears to be showing a break of that small consolidation I have highlighted:

usdcnh chart 04 January 2023

(This chart is from our charting app, which is free and can be found at this link)