ISM December US services 49.6 vs 55.0 expected

• Prior was 56.5

Details:

• Prices paid 67.6 vs.70.0 last month
• Employment 49.8 vs. 51.5 last month
• New orders 45.2 vs. 56.0 last month
• Supplier deliveries 48.5 vs. 53.6 last month
• Inventories 45.1 vs. 47.9 last month
• Backlog of order 51.5 vs. 51.8 last month
• New export orders 47.7 vs. 38.4 last month
• Imports 52.7 vs. 59.5 last month

This is the first sub-50 reading in two-and-a-half years and is a big surprise. Outside of the pandemic, this is the worst release since 2009. The collapse in new orders is particularly worrisome.

Comments in the report:

• “Business is slower than usual. Seems to be a three- or four-month trend. We expect it to pick up after the first of the year.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• “Residential new construction continues to be hindered by higher interest rates, slowing sales dramatically. A shift to rental projects seems to be a trend for all builders.” [Construction]
• “We’re dealing with inflation, increasing labor costs, longer lead times and the higher education sector struggling to retain employees.” [Educational Services]
• “Business conditions for year-end 2022 are good, but not great. Preparing for a possible recession in 2023, but with some optimism in the overall economy.” [Finance & Insurance]
• “Continue to see product pricing, staffing and labor cost increases across the board, with almost no easy savings opportunities in our supply chain operation. Feel that this will be the standard in 2023.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “Electronic component supply is becoming much better week by week.” [Information]
• “Activity level remained flat as we began to round out the year.” [Mining]
• “Seeing continual slowing of orders, along with a more receptive supply base.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “We are optimistic, although concerned, about continued inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term pressures, lead times that remain well above typical and supply chain issues that just won’t go away. Increasing interest rates are dampening the residential housing construction market, which only adds to the concerns.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]
• “Higher-than-average increases in end-of-year software and support renewals due to increased labor and economy costs.” [Retail Trade]
• “We are in the busiest season of the year in our business, and inflation is definitely putting the squeeze on our margins.” [Wholesale Trade]