Inflation, inflation, inflation. That continues to be the key driver that is influencing everything in markets (and the world for that matter) at the moment.
The Target and Walmart stories from yesterday were telling and it is going to translate to more pain for US consumers. Look over to the UK and we're already seeing a cost-of-living crisis brewing with 9% inflation - its highest in some 40 years. In Europe, rising energy prices from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is going to add to more burden for households alongside surging price pressures.
It's a story that is reverberating everywhere.
Central banks are in the firing line and that is why we're seeing rate hikes come about, even if policymakers are not the best equipped to deal with the underlying causes of the surge in inflation pressures. The pressure is on and the blame game between lawmakers and policymakers will start to draw more attention.
In the UK, we're already hearing murmurs about lawmakers supposedly questioning the BOE's independence. For me, that's an effort in trying to shift the blame as to what is happening on the ground to policymakers, whom they are accusing of "acting too slowly".
As such, if inflation pressures continue to escalate globally, the SNB and BOJ may not be able to escape this situation.
Both central banks are fundamentally as dovish as one can think of when it comes to policy settings. However, if even they see a need to shift, there's going to be hell to pay in markets.
With the franc and yen typically safe haven assets, a shift in policy thinking is enough to spur a massive inflow into the respective currencies - especially at a time where markets are having to deal with recession risks, deleveraging, and inflation uncertainty.
That will be a self-reinforcing move where we will likely see risky assets be sold off even more heavily and I would expect such flows into the franc and yen to be rather sizable and significant.
For now, pardon my skepticism for thinking that the SNB and BOJ are still not willing to take that bold step just yet. But SNB chief Thomas Jordan's remarks yesterday is something to be wary of:
"The SNB is watching inflation closely and is ready to act if inflation solidified in Switzerland."
That said, he did try to keep the calm by adding that "there are no signs of a wage-price spiral just yet". But will it just be a matter of time before the pivot comes along? Perhaps.
But that will still be something that both the SNB and BOJ will be hoping to avoid for as long as they can.