The yen got some encouragement earlier in Asia, following some early reports on the spring wage negotiations here. USD/JPY dipped to a low of 147.23 before rebounding slightly to around 147.60 as we got into European trading. But once again, BOJ governor Ueda failed to provide much assurance or confidence about an imminent policy move in his remarks here. And that seems to be weighing on the yen now, with USD/JPY up to 147.88 on the day.
Of note, the pair is pushing past its 100-day moving average (red line) of 147.63 currently. And a daily close above that will be a setback for sellers after the downside push last week. That will mean buyers have seized back the technical momentum in the pair again.
The BOJ got the ball rolling in teeing up a potential policy pivot in March. But now that we're approaching the front porch, they look to be hesitant in opening up that door.
The Japanese central bank is no stranger in disappointing markets under Ueda's tenure thus far. They have done so at almost each and every step last year already. And now, they might get one last chance to do so again.
Remember the meme?
It's going to be a tricky one as headline risks are now going to dictate the state of play in the yen. That will most certainly be the case until we get to the BOJ policy decision next week.
It is all about the outcome of the spring wage negotiations. And at the balance now, I'd wager that policymakers are going to hold rates and make mention that they will only take action in April. We'll see if the narrative will shift as we get more headlines in the days ahead.
