Bloomberg with the scenario outlines from JPM's trading sales and trading desk.
- 6.9% or lower has the potential to lift the equity benchmark between 8% and 10% ...
The desk assigns a 5% probability to that playing out.
- “The logic here is that not only is inflation dissipating, but its pace is accelerating,”
- “This would give increasing confidence in projections of headline inflation falling ~3% in 2023. Further, if inflation is at 3%, irrespective of the labor market conditions, it seems unlikely that the Fed would hold the terminal rate at 5%. Any Fed pivot will rip equities.”
The most likely scenario is between 7.2% to 7.4%
- the S&P 500 climbs by 2% to 3%
while any near or above the prior reading of 7.7%
- index is likely to sink as much as 5% should inflation exceed 7.8%
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Info comes via Bloomberg (gated)
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Data is due Tuesday, 13 December 2022:
This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
The times in the left-most column are GMT.
The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
