In October last year JPM analysts concluded a recession was basically a done deal. They have now dialled that well back, saying the chance of a recession has fallen sharply. A soft landing is now the most likely scenario.
JPMorgan’s trading model shows that seven of nine asset classes now show less than a 50% chance of a recession:
- U.S. high-grade credit
- U.S. high-yield credit
- Five-year treasuries
- European stock market index
- European Union high-grade credit
- European Union high-yield credit
- Five-year European Union government bonds
The S&P 500 and base metals are still reflecting recession probabilities over 50%.
Bloomberg (gated) carry the info from JPM. The S&P 500 Index is still assigning a 73% probability of a recession materializing (down from 98% in 2022).
Weekly SPX:
