Bloomberg (gated) noted downgraded China economic growth forecasts from analysts following the weak data results.
Yesterday we had this:
The People's Bank of China cut rates yesterday also:
China's official GDP target is around 5% (Yes, "around" 5% is the official target).
JPMorgan lowered its full-year forecast for 2023 to 4.8%
- in May the analysts were at 6.4%!
- JPM are at 4.2% for 2024
- JPM saying that “the deterioration in the housing market outlook, especially another year of big decline in land purchase and new home starts, tends to increase the drag” on the economy
- also cited worries about Chines property giant Country Garden missing a bond coupon payment, which will further erode market confidence and intensify the spillover risk across some of China’s financial sector
Barclays cuts its 2023 projection to 4.5%
- from 4.9%
- and left its 2024 forecast unchanged at 4%
- Barclays citing disappointing data on consumption, housing, exports and credit, as well as the absence of effective stimulus.
Mizuho cut its forecast to 5.0%
- from 5.5%
- citing continuing weakness in the property market
Standard Chartered left its 2023 forecast at 5.4%
- anticipating a reopening boost to the services sector, and increased policy stimulus
