US equity markets are closed today for the Independence Day holiday but futures are narrowly lower. On Friday, the S&P 500 gained 1.05% after ending the worst H1 since 1970.
Goldman Sachs and CIBC are both out today with reports highlighting the positive seasonals in July.
Goldman notes that the best two-week period for equities is the first two weeks of July.
CIBC breaks it down further noting that July is a positive month for equity indices at a rate 60% (10-30-All Years). They also note that median forward monthly returns after two consecutive negative quarters for equities is +1.9% in the following month.
"The silver lining may be that the current downcycle could be compressed, with a rapid pace of decline in breadth indicators that appear to have already reached terminal lows. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also appears to have already peaked, with evolving negative technical divergences," they write.
They note this should be a counter-trend, relief rally.
