Blackrock CEO Larry Fink is on CNBC at the moment and one headline from him is that US inflation won't fall below 4% soon but I wouldn't be so sure.
This week's CPI number was 5.0% so there's some breathing room above 4% but the next few months are going to be extremely favorable for falling year-over-year numbers. There's a combined 2.5 percentage points of inflation set to fall out of the year-over-year metric through June.
I'm oversimplifying the math but -- roughly -- for inflation to stay above 4% through the June data, it will take a combined 1.5 percentage points of m/m inflation rises, or about 0.5% per month. Gas prices are up a bit this month so it's possible in April but I think we'd need about $10 more in oil to keep inflation above 4%.
That's something the Bank of Canada highlighted this week when forecasting that inflation will fall to 3% this summer.
To be fair to Fink, there are a lot of ways to measure 4% inflation and something like a 4-month run rate is certainly over 4% so there's no need to dunk on him but if the measure is y/y CPI then I'd say sub-4% this summer is a good bet.