Larry Fink says inflation unlikely to fall below 4% soon but I'm not so sure

Blackrock CEO Larry Fink is on CNBC at the moment and one headline from him is that US inflation won't fall below 4% soon but I wouldn't be so sure.

This week's CPI number was 5.0% so there's some breathing room above 4% but the next few months are going to be extremely favorable for falling year-over-year numbers. There's a combined 2.5 percentage points of inflation set to fall out of the year-over-year metric through June.

I'm oversimplifying the math but -- roughly -- for inflation to stay above 4% through the June data, it will take a combined 1.5 percentage points of m/m inflation rises, or about 0.5% per month. Gas prices are up a bit this month so it's possible in April but I think we'd need about $10 more in oil to keep inflation above 4%.

That's something the Bank of Canada Bank of Canada The Bank of Canada (BOC) is the central bank of Canada. It was created in 1934 and is responsible for implementing monetary policy in the country, issuing currency, and promoting a safe and stable financial system.The Bank's main role is to "promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada," as defined in the Bank of Canada Act. This includes maintaining the stability of the financial system, promoting a sound and efficient financial system, and fostering monetary conditions that will preser The Bank of Canada (BOC) is the central bank of Canada. It was created in 1934 and is responsible for implementing monetary policy in the country, issuing currency, and promoting a safe and stable financial system.The Bank's main role is to "promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada," as defined in the Bank of Canada Act. This includes maintaining the stability of the financial system, promoting a sound and efficient financial system, and fostering monetary conditions that will preser Read this Term highlighted this week when forecasting that inflation will fall to 3% this summer.

To be fair to Fink, there are a lot of ways to measure 4% inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term and something like a 4-month run rate is certainly over 4% so there's no need to dunk on him but if the measure is y/y CPI then I'd say sub-4% this summer is a good bet.