It's non-farm payrolls Friday but it's a tough one. Aside from the hurricane and strike skews in the jobs report, it's coming just ahead of the US election and that's making it tough to lean into any position.
I wrote a non-farm payrolls preview yesterday and that main takeaway is that seasonals point to a lower-than-expected unemployment rate and combined with the unrounded unemployment rate 4.0510% in September and I see a risk that we get a 4.0% reading rather than the 4.1% expected.
Will the dollar rally on that? Yes. Would I chase it? No, because of election worries.
Peter Berezin from BCA also brings up an interesting point that could lead to a stronger headline number (consensus +113K).
