With 99% of the votes reported, the first round of the French election goes to Macron (27.6%) with Le Pen (23.4%) trailing in second.
I would argue the euro caught a bit of a relief on the results at the open today but we're seeing the single currency give all of that back already against a rampaging dollar.
While Macron managed to fend off Le Pen this time around, the runoff on 24 April may be a lot closer than it looks. Ifop showed a poll result which predicted a very close margin, with 51% for Macron and 49% for Le Pen. Other polls have it around a 3-8 points victory margin for Macron but either way, this is a lot closer than the 2017 election already.
At the time, Macron beat Le Pen as he gathered 66.1% of the votes. That is certainly not going to be the case in two weeks' time. As such, sentiment leading up to the 24 April runoff is going to be crucial. Anything under 3 points in the polls would be within a margin for error and the election result could really swing either way.
That is going to be a risk factor to watch for the euro.
