University of Michigan sentiment index
  • Prior month 56.8
  • Preliminary estimate 59.1
  • Final Michigan consumer sentiment index 59.7 versus 59.1 preliminary
  • Current conditions 59.4 versus 60.2 preliminary. 58.8 last month
  • Expectations 59.9 versus 58.4 preliminary. 55.6 last month
  • one year inflation final 4.4% versus 4.6% preliminary. 4.9% last month
  • five year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% preliminary. 3.0% last month

The 1 year inflation expectations component is a step in the right direction, but still remains high from a historical standards. It is an expectations number, not an actual inflation reading. So consumers are still expecting inflation to remain well above the Fed target 1 year hence.

One year inflation expectations
One year inflation expectations steps to 4.4%

In contrast, the median estimate from the feds central tendencies is for one year inflation to be 3.1% at the end of 2023.

Fed
The Fed estimate for inflation at the end of 2023