- Recent dots show a fair amount of dispersion in opinion at the Fed.
- The range of views about the path forward and debate over neutral is robust.
- The Fed is not in mad dash to neutral, in favour of not rushing to judgement or assuming the job is done on inflation.
- As long as consumer spending continues, there will be demand for products and therefore for workers.
- I do not expect to see unemployment increase much further.
- I expect demand will continue to sustain employment.
- The labour market is not flashing red. I am optimistic about the future.
- Higher supply has contributed to the rise in unemployment.
- I expect some choppiness on inflation going forward, will wait and see what is needed on rates.
- If the labour market deteriorates that is a reason for a faster pace to neutral, but that is not the base case.
- Long-run inflation expectations remain relatively stable.
- I feel that the neutral rate is in the 3.00-3.25% range.
- As rates fall, the Fed will dive more deeply into estimating the neutral rate with models but also with surveys of consumers and businesses.
- The Fed will have to let the policies of the next President play out.
- Had earlier been concerned rate cuts would unleash pent-up demand, but that may be substantially less than thought.
- Levels of excess savings have diminished for many households, but some still have cash on hand and could fuel demand.
- The US is almost a split economy with some households living at their limit and others "flush".
- Will be paying close attention to upcoming immigration
