Treasury says that while the June quarter GDP fell, more recent evidence suggests we are at or near the bottom of the economic cycle:
- June quarter GDP fell by 0.2%, less than expected, with population growth masking economic weakness.
But,, its not a lock ... Treasury go on to say that while interest rates began to ease, activity has likely remained flat through the September quarter with no firm sign of a recovery just yet.
And add to keep an eye out:
- With a significant amount of data due in the next fortnight, we should know more about where we are at in the cycle.
Other points:
- Consumer and business expectations are improving, indicating a potential economic bottoming.
- The current account deficit remained high at 6.7% of GDP due to slow recovery in service exports and strong import volumes.
- OECD forecasts stable global growth, with easing inflation and supportive policies in China and the U.S.
- U.S. and China implemented policy easing to support their economies
Earlier:
NZD/USD is little net changed on the day so far, around 0.6342
