Nomura has raised their assessment for the September meeting to a 100 basis point hike as a result of the higher than expected CPI data today. They also raised their terminal rate in 2023 to 4.5% – 4.75%. The Federal Reserve targets a fed funds rate in a 25 basis point range.

The current rate is a 2.25% to 2.5%. A 75 basis point hike would take the rate to 3.0% to 3.25%. There are 2 remaining meetings one on November 1-2 and the next is on December 13-14.

If the Fed does 50 basis points in November. That would take the rate to 3.5% – 3.75%. If they do another 50 basis points in December, that would bring the target rate to 4.0% – 4.25%. Nomura sees another 50 basis point hike above that by February 2023 (taking the rate to 4.5% – 4.75%).