There has been some back and forth shifts in pricing on this over the past month, as seen here before the main event yesterday. But essentially, the aftermath just pretty much moves the Fed funds futures curve to almost exactly where we were a week ago.
For now, the first rate cut is being factored in for June 2024. But over time, expect this key moment to perhaps be pushed back further so long as US economic data continues to stay more robust. Inflation, or at least the core reading, is still keeping on track and gradually making its way lower. So, it now comes down to if the US consumer or employment conditions will continue to hold up.
And we won't have to wait too long for the next clues on that. Coming up later today, there is the US retail sales, producer prices, and also the weekly jobless claims data to work through. Perhaps that might trigger more of a reaction in markets after the rather dull one yesterday.
