November US ISM manufacturing index 49.0 vs 49.8 expected

• Prior was 50.2
• Estimates ranged from 48.0 vs 50.4
• Prices paid 43.0 vs 47.5 expected (prior 46.6)
• Production 51.5 vs 52.3 prior
• Employment 48.8 vs 50.0 prior
• New orders 47.2 vs 49.2 prior
• Order backlog 40.0 vs 45.3 prior
• New export orders 48.4 vs 46.5 prior

This is the first reading below 50 in two-and-a-half years. I'd be surprised if the market was priced at the 'consensus' because the regional numbers have been soft.

Comments in the report aren't positive:

• "Customer demand is softening, yet suppliers are maintaining high prices and record profits. Pushing for cost reductions based on market evidence has been surprisingly successful.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
• “Future volumes are on a downward trend for the next 60 days.” [Chemical Products]
• “Orders for transportation equipment remain strong. Supply chain issues persist, with minimal direct effect on output.” [Transportation Equipment]
• “Consumer goods are slowing down in several of our markets, although the U.S. economy seems decent. Cannot say the same for the European economy.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
• “General economic uncertainty has created a slowdown in orders as we approach the end of the year, and many of our key customers are reducing their capital expenditures spend.” [Machinery]
• “Overall, things are worsening. Housing starts are down. We’re doing well against our competitors, but the industry overall is down. We’re sitting on cash (that is) tied up in inventory.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
• “The market remains consistent: sales match expectations; there are concerns about the impact of rising interest rates on customers; most suppliers have recovered on labor, but some are still struggling; and inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term seems to have peaked, but commodity price decreases have not been passed through to us. Lots of unknowns regarding impact to the European Union from the Russia-Ukraine war and questions about customer behavior in 2023.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
• “There is caution going into 2023, but the commercial section of construction seems to still be going strong.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
• “Looking into December and the first quarter of 2023, business is softening as uncertain economic conditions lie ahead.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]
• “Slight improvement on overall business conditions from the previous month.” [Primary Metals]

Note the collapse in the backlog of orders: