The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations for July 2024 showed

Inflation:

  • Median one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively.
  • Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations fell sharply by 0.6 percentage points to 2.3%, the lowest since the survey's inception in June 2013.
  • Decline in three-year inflation expectations was most significant among respondents with a high-school education or less and those with annual household income under $50,000.
  • Disagreement among respondents decreased at the one- and five-year horizons, and remained unchanged at the three-year horizon.
  • Median inflation uncertainty was unchanged across all three horizons.
  • Median home price growth expectations remained steady at 3.0%.
  • Year-ahead commodity price expectations declined for gas (down 0.8 percentage points to 3.5%) and food (down 0.1 percentage point to 4.7%), but increased for medical care (up 0.2 percentage points to 7.6%), college education (up 1.9 percentage points to 7.2%), and rent (up 0.6 percentage points to 7.1%).

Labor Market:

  • Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth declined by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%.
  • Mean unemployment expectations decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.6%.
  • Mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 14.3%.
  • Mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily increased by 0.2 percentage points to 20.7%, the highest since February 2023.
  • Mean perceived probability of finding a job if current employment was lost decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 52.5%.

Household Finance:

  • Median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.0%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations fell by 0.2 percentage points to 4.9%, the lowest since April 2021.
  • Perceptions of credit access worsened, with more households reporting it harder to obtain credit than a year ago. However, expectations for future credit availability improved.
  • Average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.0 percentage points to 13.3%, the highest since April 2020.
  • Median expectation regarding year-ahead change in taxes decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.0%.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt remained unchanged at 9.3%.
  • Mean perceived probability that average interest rates on savings accounts will be higher in 12 months decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 25.1%.
  • Perceptions of households’ current financial situations improved slightly, while year-ahead financial expectations deteriorated.
  • Mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.1 percentage points to 39.3%.