More often than not, the kiwi tends to move in tandem with the aussie. But from the charts, this isn't so much so the case this time around. While the aussie is still not breaking down just yet, the kiwi is right on the cusp against the dollar after having seen its attempt to break above 0.6500 run into a brick wall.
I want to say that in part, markets are needing to reprice RBA expectations a little but to keep things simple, it's all about the technicals at the end of the day.
And in the case of NZD/USD, the rejection at 0.6500 has since seen the pair push lower and is now reaching a potential breaking point for the kiwi to the downside.
The pair is now running into the January lows of 0.6190-00 and a break below that could set off the next downside leg. That said, sellers should not get too comfortable just yet as there are still some additional layers of support to work through.
The confluence of the 100 (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages at 0.6158 and 0.6185 respectively will also be key levels to be mindful of, alongside the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the upswing since October at 0.6145.
I would argue that sellers will need to firmly break those levels as well to really vindicate a potential drop next towards 0.6000 again.
