And in all of those attempts, oil bulls have seen their appetite sapped whenever price does move above $80 and looks to seal a firmer break above the key level. Previously, the 100-day moving average (red line) was also a major resistance point but upon today's gap higher, we are seeing that cleared out of the way.
That said, there is still notable resistance around the region of $82.30 to $82.60 to get past in order to really signify a further upside leg for oil prices. Beyond that, the 200-day moving average (blue line), now seen at $84.10, will be the next key resistance point.
In terms of the fundamental outlook, the surprise move here definitely puts a floor/bottom on oil prices and the OPEC+ JMMC meeting today should reaffirm the view that members are going to stick with the narrative that the market is oversupplied.
But essentially, we all know why they are doing this (🤑🤑🤑) and it's a two-fold move - with this also being a big slap in the face to the Biden administration.
As much as the technicals remain challenging, there is a strong case for oil prices to grow increasingly bullish from this point. There are also other key factors driving the trade but all else being equal, we might have just seen the squeeze/flush of oil longs completed two weeks back and now we're back to the reset.
If you're looking for other opportunities related to this, the proxies may be a good spot to watch as well i.e. Canadian dollar (and perhaps the Norwegian krone and/or Russian ruble).
USD/CAD has already opened with a gap below its 100-day moving average and that might play further into a drop towards 1.3400 next.
