It has been an unpleasant month for oil traders. Crude has risen $4 this month but it's been a rough road getting there with repeated whipsaws intraday and extreme choppiness in trading.
Headlines about the Red Sea have been faded over and over again despite bullish implications and fears of an OPEC breakdown remain high.
However when you back it out, the chart starts to look promising. A series of higher lows began on December 13 and oil is now trading at a four-week high. If $76.18 breaks, it will be an eight-week high.
On the fundamental side, this week's signs of stimulus from China are promising and the US economy continues to impress. A turn in the interest rate cycle is positive for global demand as well.
Finally, sentiment is terrible in the oil market with hedge fund net shorts at extreme levels.
Risks remain high for the second half but seasonals are bullish from February so there may be a case to buy a break of the December high.
