Oil - Goldman Sachs says 50% chance Iran remain sanctioned through 2023

ICYMI, the report is here:

• Biden restores Iran civilian nuclear sanctions relief in sign of deal progress. Watch oil

As I posted on a follow-up Monday:

• At the margin this is a negative for oil

Goldman Sachs say the prospect of agreement on Iran is a coin toss:

• We currently only expect a 50% probability of a deal in Dec-22
• and a 50% probability that Iran will remain sanctioned through 2023

GS do outline a deal scenario though:

• a deal with Iran next month that would allow for a 3Q22 return of Iranian volumes to the market would represent up to $7/bbl downside risk relative to our above-consensus $105/bbl 2023 Brent forecast
• but “would not derail our view for structurally higher prices”

Oil chart via our ForexLive free charts: