Oil Price Prediction Score: -3 (Moderately Bearish)

Key Observations

From the 240-Minute Chart (Crude Oil Futures):

  1. Oil Price Below Key Levels:

    • The current oil price at $70.43 is trading below:
      • Today's Value Area Low (VAL) at $70.60.
      • Friday's VAL at $70.57.
      • Thursday's POC at $70.40.
    • Oil prices below these key levels suggest sellers remain in control, reflecting bearish sentiment.

  2. VWAP and Resistance for Oil Prices:

    • Today’s VWAP for crude oil at $70.77 and the POC at $70.92 are immediate resistance levels.
    • Any retracement of oil prices to these levels may face renewed selling pressure.

  3. Delta Analysis of Oil Futures:

    • The most recent 240-minute bars have negative delta changes alongside bearish price action:
      • High sell volume at lower price ranges indicates persistent selling pressure in crude oil futures.
      • Delta SL remains negative, confirming continued seller dominance in the oil market.

  4. Naked Levels Below Oil Prices:

    • $69.84 (Thursday's VAL) is a key downside target where short positions in crude oil may take profit.
    • Further below are $69.65 (Wednesday's VWAP) and $69.50 (Wednesday's POC).
    • These levels could act as magnets for the oil price if selling pressure continues.

From the 30-Minute Chart of Crude Oil:

  1. Price Action and VWAP Slope in Oil Futures:

    • The oil price remains below today’s VWAP at $70.77, and the slope is clearly downward, reinforcing the bearish trend for crude oil futures.

  2. Delta and Volume Confirmation in Oil Trading:

    • Multiple bars show negative Delta Change and high sell volume, signaling active selling in the oil market.
    • Despite occasional green bars in crude oil prices, they lack follow-through and are accompanied by weak or negative delta, indicating no strong buyer presence.

  3. Immediate Resistance and Support for Oil Prices:

    • Resistance Levels: $70.60 (VAL), $70.77 (VWAP), and $70.92 (POC).
    • Support Levels: $70.32 (current local low), followed by $69.84 (Thursday’s VAL), where oil price may encounter temporary buying pressure.

Summary for Oil Traders and Investors:

  • Bias for Oil Prices: Moderately bearish (-3).
  • Near-Term Outlook for Oil: The price of crude oil futures may test $69.84, with key resistance at $70.77 (VWAP) and $70.92 (POC).
  • Oil Trading Note: Traders might wait for a retracement of oil prices to $70.75 (just below VWAP) for better short entries, as sellers are likely to defend that area in crude oil trading.

Use Case Reminder: This oil price prediction highlights directional bias but does not provide exact trade entries. Use key levels and order flow data to plan precise entries and exits when trading crude oil futures. Trade oil at your risk only and visit ForexLive.com for additional views.